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China Will Force Military Confrontation Over Disputed Islands

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war with china

“War is imminent with the United States, Vietnam and the Philippines,” Chinese President and leader of the communist Party -Hu Jintao 2011

China’s construction of a military garrison in the West Philippine Sea (1) (also South China Sea) is an indicator that China will force a military confrontation in the area.

Possession of the islands would provide China with a much needed supply of petroleum. Warring over the islands, however, serves China in other ways as well.

With a declining economy and increasing popular unrest, the communist party needs an external force upon which to focus. A war in the West Philippine Sea is the perfect focal point for the regime in Beijing.

As the communists grip on control deteriorates, they will do whatever it takes to maintain power. By starting a war over ownership of the Paracel and Spratly Islands and/or Scarborough Shoal, the communists can deflect attention from their failings at home.




Disputed Islands

The West Philippine Sea (aka South China Sea) is dotted with islands which may be rich in oil.

Although the exact quantity of crude in the area has not been proven, estimates range from 28 billion to 213 billion barrels of oil2. If either estimate is correct, then the area would be one of the most oil rich areas on the planet.

The problem is that possession of these islands remains in dispute. Up to six nations including: Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines and China lay claim (3) to the geographic (4) region (5).

As China’s reliance on fuel rises, it has made a push to ‘invade’ territories of other claimants. Four of the six claimant countries base their ownership on international law, geological surveys and continental-shelf boundaries, the Chinese do not (6).

While those four countries are willing to go discuss the matter in court, the Chinese are not.

The Chinese cloak their right to ownership on the ‘nine dotted line (7)’, which was drawn up in 1947, before the founding of communist China.

war with china

Outdated Maps Used as Proof of Ownership

Aside from this, Beijing relies on maps drawn up several hundred years ago in the age of by-gone dynasties as proof of ownership of the land (8).

China’s belligerence in the issue is creating continued problems.

For the sake of brevity, I will use the Vietnamese claim as an example what a lawful claim to the islands consists of. Vietnam’s claim to its section of the islands is based upon the following:

A vietnamese map by Phan Huy Chu entitled “Dai Nam Nhat Thong Toan Do” mentioned the Spratlys under the name Van Ly Truong Sa as part of Vietnamese national territory

In 1852 France colonized the southern part of Vietnam, called Cochinchina.

In 1933 the Spratlys were “incorporated into the French colony of Cochinchina”. France took “official possession of the islands.”
Three French ships, the Alerte, Astrabale, and De Lanessa, visited the Spratlys and officially declared the following islands as French territory

Notice of occupation was made by France to interested countries on July 24 to September 25, 1933. Except for Japan, “no state xxx raised any protest.”

Three powers remained silent xxx: the United States (occupying the Philippines), China, and the Netherlands (then occupying Indonesia) xxx…. During the last War, France defended the Spratlys from Japanese military forces.

In the 1951 “San Francisco Peace Treaty” Japan relinquished all titles and claims to the Paracel Islands and the Spratlys Islands.

After the Japanese defeat in 1945, France “returned Cochinchina to Vietnam xxx.

In 1949, Vietnam “inherited” from France all former French rights over the Paracel Islands and the Spratlys Islands. (9)

China refuses to acknowledge such claims by any other nation state, calling them ridiculous (10).

war with china

This Will Not Be Just an Oil War

It is true that China now consumes more petroleum than any other country. It is also true that China is desperately seeking to shore up oil rights from Africa to Canada.

As a consequence, the islands would be an oil boom for the petroleum starved Chinese giant. Oil, however, is not China’s main reason to go to war in the area.

China will go to war to overshadow economic and political problems at home, and use a pre-emptive show of force to tilt the balance of power in the region.

By waging a military campaign, Beijing will refocus the growing discontent within the Chinese population upon ‘another foreign invasion’ of China’s ‘sovereign territory’.

China’s economy is not doing as well as it must in order to maintain a ‘harmonious society’.

Each year, China must create millions of new jobs just for the recent college graduates. In addition to this, China must create opportunities for the hundreds of millions of poor farmers who migrate to the major cities looking for jobs.

The global crisis has hurt Chinese exports, which have been the driver of the economic juggernaut. Coupled with this is a financial crisis of epic proportions which has led to a decline in the Chinese economy.

Beijing is aware that the legitimacy of the communists revolves around defending against foreign invaders and creating wealth. As the economy stagnates, the usefulness of the party comes into question.

The logical card for Beijing to play is to create a war in which the communist party can play an integral role (11).


References & Image Credits:
(1) Garrison in the Sansha Islands
(2) Reuters
(3) Sky News
(4) Parcel Spratly Islands
(5) Wikipedia
(6) The Last Columnist
(7) Wikipedia
(8) Reuters
(9) Paracel Spratly Islands
(10) The Last Columnist
(11) The Chinese military reports directly to the communist party and operates in isolation from the people. The military was recently forced to re-pledge their loyalty to Beijing and the power of the party.
(12) Want China Times

Originally published on TopSecretWriters.com

  • EyesonU

    According the history, I believed that the Vietnamese-Nguoi kinh has a piece of land called Hanoi (aka Dai Viet) and the rest is used to belong to the Kampuchea and Champa. It’s was 100% true!

  • Portgage

    The author is really criticizing China for what its antagonists are doing. Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and the US are picking a fight with China to divert attention away from their domestic failures. In doing so, its like calling someone stupid to make one smart. Demonizing China is not going to deter its rise and certainly will not improve their own domestic problems.

    These countries should talk to China on how to resolve the territorial claims rationally and fairly. Nothing will be resolved otherwise.

  • Chinese Cheats

    China had a chance to amicably reconcile this but failed to do so. Read the article. The Chinese are failing to respect international law. Th Chinese have no legitimate rights to the islands. The communists are on their last leg. Let them fall.

  • Liu pa

    China = NAZI

  • Banlas theway

    You don’t know China nor you know what is Nazi. Go and get a life

  • Banlas theway

    Even the poster name is “Chinese Cheats’. So the outcome of its comment is nothing but all cheat lies and hallucinations. You are overdose with drugs, troll.

  • Anonymous

    hey ass wipe can you give me a source of where you get the quote ”
    War is imminent with the United States” from? I check your links and none of them show anything. No blogs or those bullcraps sources, please. I would be very surprised that a quote like that from one of the most power man on earth is not all over the news.

  • Anonymous

    topsecretwriters used to be good now it’s going down toilet with retard like this guy. I’m out!

  • Right – like you’ve been a “long term reader”…our readers aren’t gullible enough to believe you, my friend.

  • Here are a few more sources for your review. Although I doubt you even bothered checking WC’s sources – you’re only here to try and cast doubt on his factual article.

    http://thelastcolumnist.com/home/china-condemns-vietnams-legal-claim-on-spratly-islands/
    http://www.yousaytoo.com/china-prepare-for-war-over-spratly-islands/1740083
    http://www.tianhuaculture.net/eng/c8_046.htm
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jun/27/inside-china-pla-says-war-us-imminent/?page=all

    Don’t know who you think you’re trying to fool, but try it elsewhere. Our readers can see through the Chinese propaganda.

  • The Analogy is actually pretty accurate. The world was also unaware of what the Nazi’s were up to until it was almost too late, not unlike how China has successfully hidden the truth about what goes on there from the outside world quite successfully.

  • Your ad hominem attack lacks any sort of substance – all you did is call names. You failed to response to the truth of his comment – that the Chinese really are failing to respect international law, and that they have no rights to the islands according to the opinion of every other country on the planet. Respond to the facts rather than name-calling like a child.

  • Ha

    Angry 50 cent poster from China.

  • Tom Kenny

    The word “bullcrap” is always singular. They may not teach that in China.
    Re the quote, be a man and do your own research. If you want to discuss, then do it the right way. If you want to be a coward and hide behind some vacant words then do something useful like surf weibo all day.

  • Tm Kenny

    Good point Ryan. The Nazi’s also used economic growth to shore up confidence in Germany. In addition, Adolf Hitler would agree with Hu Jintao, Mao, Deng, Jiang and the future dictator, Xi Jinping, that people should butt out of other country’s affairs. Hitler, like the current commu ist regime in China, believes that the wholesale slaughter of their own people is just a cost of economic development.

  • Anonymous

    all of china is fake..chinese are idiots!

  • Anonymous

    In reply to funnyboy….( a fitting avatar) What an incredible idiot! he has demonstrated a total lack of knowledge! The first sign of a fool is someone commenting without knowledge.

  • Anonymous

    Again you are acting the fool !

  • Anonymous

    China has never been a country that considers anything except what they desire. They usually do not negotiate unless it’s to their advantage. China is known to be a bully to their own people and other countries.
    What a shame

  • Anonymous

    China has never been a country that considers anything except what they desire. They usually do not negotiate unless it’s to their advantage. China is known to be a bully to their own people and other countries.
    What a shame

  • Anonymous

    China has never been a country that considers anything except what they desire. They usually do not negotiate unless it’s to their advantage. China is known to be a bully to their own people and other countries.
    What a shame

  • Anonymous

    Bullcraps is just plural of bullcrap. “I picked up alot of bullcraps to start the fire.”

  • LLLL

    You fucken idiot all your comments are all bullshit. You got to check the facts before you write. All of you WHITE bastards invaded North and South of America you selfish low life cunt.

  • Chinasux

    Chinese people look like mongoloids

  • cisco19

    They look like mongoloids!

  • usdreamland2014@gmail.com

    You’re right, but you’re forgot to say that Kinh people was used to live in South China. Chinese was taking their land and push The Viet more south.

  • usdreamland2014@gmail.com

    I agree with the author. China is launching a war in the region because of their economy’s problem. I am not sure it’s justify to say if I have an economy problem then let’s rob my neighbors. If Chinese can take South China Sea, then what’s next?Australia, because Australia has most sources? China would not dare to do it because their dog eat dog culture is not working. I hope the world will help those small countries who has just and right to defend their countries.

“The thing about the truth is, not a lot of people can handle it.” -Conor McGregor

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Ryan is the founder of Top Secret Writers. He is an IT analyst, blogger, journalist, and a researcher for the truth behind strange stories.
 
Lori is TSW's editor. Freelance writer and editor for over 17 years, she loves to read and loves fringe science and conspiracy theory.

Top Secret Writers

Gabrielle is a journalist who finds strange stories the media misses, and enlightens readers about news they never knew existed.
Sally is TSW’s health/environmental expert. As a blogger/organic gardener, she’s investigates critical environmental issues.
Mark Dorr grew up the son of a treasure hunter. His experiences led to working internationally in some surprising situations!
Mark R. Whittington, from Houston, Texas, frequently writes on space, science, political commentary and political culture.

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